论文部分内容阅读
本文依据我国大陆地区1978-2011年的统计数据,选取GDP、人口老龄化、城市化、医疗供给、政府预算卫生支出等多个影响因素,运用误差修正模型对卫生总费用进行实证研究,并通过重新构造非线性协整模型,得出我国大陆卫生总费用的收入弹性随人口老龄化水平上升而不断增加的结论。依据我国台湾地区1981~2011年的统计数据建立非线性协整模型,本文就GDP和人口老龄化对两岸卫生总费用的不同影响作用进行比较分析,并预测了我国大陆和台湾地区未来卫生总费用收入弹性的变化趋势。
Based on the statistical data from 1978 to 2011 in mainland China, this paper selects multiple influencing factors, such as GDP, population aging, urbanization, medical supply and government budget health expenditure, and uses the error correction model to make an empirical study of the total health expenditure, We reconstruct the nonlinear cointegration model and conclude that the income elasticity of total health expenditure in mainland China increases with the aging of the population. Based on the statistical data of Taiwan in China from 1981 to 2011, this paper establishes a nonlinear cointegration model. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the different effects of GDP and population aging on the total health expenditure across the Taiwan Strait and predicts the future total health expenditure in mainland China and Taiwan The trend of income elasticity.