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由于受到水文地质、矿井开采等因素的影响,矿井地下水系统的演化不仅具有确定性也具有随机性,采用单一的确定性方法或随机性方法都难以揭示矿井地下水系统演化的两面性.混沌理论将确定性分析方法和随机性分析方法两者实现了统一.矿井涌水量时间序列是地下水系统中各要素相互作用的结果,它包含着该动力系统的信息.基于刘桥二矿水文地质背景分析,采用混沌时间序列分析方法对该矿的矿井涌水量时间序列进行建模、分析,得出了其Lyapunov指数为0.1427,表明刘桥二矿涌水量具有混沌特征.利用建立的模型,选择2004年4月至2005年2月间的矿井涌水量时间序列进行验证,结果表明,利用混沌时间序列分析方法预测矿井涌水量是可行的且具有较高的精度.
Due to the influence of hydrogeology, mine exploitation and other factors, the evolution of mine groundwater system is not only deterministic but also random, and it is difficult to reveal the duality of groundwater system evolvement by a single deterministic method or stochastic method. The chaos theory will determine Both the sex analysis method and the stochastic analysis method have been unified.The time series of mine water inflow is the result of the interaction of the various elements in the groundwater system and contains the information of the dynamical system.Based on the hydrogeological background of Liuqiao No.2 mine, The chaotic time series analysis method is used to model and analyze the time series of mine water inflow, and the Lyapunov exponent is 0.1427, which shows that the water inflow in Liuqiao No.2 mine is chaotic. By using the established model, To February 2005 to verify the time series of mine water inflow, the results show that the use of chaotic time series analysis method to predict mine water inflow is feasible and with high accuracy.