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商品流通产业周期性波动由古典型向增长型转变过程分析 采用“环比直接法”测定表明我国商品流通产业从1949年以来共发生12次,增长型共有5次,其中1979年以后6次,增长型为3次。如果讲这种趋势还不是特别明显,那么采用移动平均直接法测定的周期性波动表明我国商品流通产业总共发生五次经济波动,1977年以前的第一次和第二次都是古典型波动,第三次波动的波谷最低值仅为~1.84％.
The analysis of the cyclical fluctuation of the commodity circulation industry from the classical type to the growth type adopts the “direct comparison method” to show that China’s commodity circulation industry has occurred 12 times since 1949, and the growth type has 5 times, including 6 times since 1979. The growth type is 3 times. If this trend is not particularly obvious, then the periodic fluctuations measured by the moving average direct method indicate that China’s commodity circulation industry has experienced five economic fluctuations in all. The first and second time before 1977 were classical fluctuations. The lowest value of the third fluctuation trough is only ~1.84%.