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在经济分割环境下,中国转型时期的经济增长是通过两个渠道实现的,资本形成受到信贷扩张和新增货币供给的重要影响,即信贷扩张→资本形成→经济增长的资本形成渠道;货币扩张受到过度投资和资本加速形成的重要影响,即过度投资→货币扩张→经济增长的货币扩张渠道。理论分析与实证结果表明,资本形成与货币扩张之间存在长期稳定的互动关系和正循环过程,持续推动中国经济快速增长。而进一步的经验证据显示,随着经济结构和市场环境的变化,经济运行的潜在不稳定性持续增加,资本积累与货币需求的决定机制逐渐趋于相对不稳定,资本形成与货币扩张的互动关系正在发生变化。
Under economic segmentation, the economic growth during the transitional period of China was realized through two channels. The formation of capital was greatly influenced by credit expansion and new money supply, namely, the capital formation channel of credit expansion → capital formation → economic growth; and the expansion of money By the over-investment and capital formation accelerated the important impact, that over-investment → monetary expansion → economic growth of monetary expansion channels. Theoretical analysis and empirical results show that there is a long-term stable interaction and a positive cycle between capital formation and monetary expansion, which will continue to promote China’s rapid economic growth. Further empirical evidence shows that with the changes in economic structure and market environment, the potential instability of economic operations continues to increase, the mechanism for determining capital accumulation and demand for money tends to be relatively unstable, and the interaction between capital formation and monetary expansion It is changing.