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美国能源情报署(EIA)最近发表了《2002年版世界能源展望》,主要内容如下 1.石油需求。根据基础预测,随着世界经济的增长,世界石油的需求量将从2000年的每天7600万桶增长到2020年的每天1.189亿桶。2020年的需求量将是2000年的1.56倍。这将意味着石油需求年均增长2％,其中居首位的是运输业对石油需求的增加。到2020年,运输业的需求将占总需求量的70％。世界需求的增长趋势将受价格的左右。在低价位情况下,2020年的需求量预计为每天1.15亿～1.25亿桶。 2.石油价格。石油价格过去一直变幻不定,预计未来依然如此。这种情况主要是由石油供应方的特殊结构因素决定的。在石油价格方面存在着三种预测。 基础预测认为,以2000年美元价格计算,在经历了2001～2002年的石油价格下降之后,
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently published the “2002 edition of the World Energy Outlook”, the main contents are as follows 1. Oil demand. According to the basic forecast, as the world economy grows, the world oil demand will grow from 76 million barrels per day in 2000 to 119.8 million barrels per day by 2020. Demand for 2020 will be 1.56 times that of 2000. This will mean an average annual increase of 2% in oil demand, with the top priority being the increase in the demand for oil from the transport industry. By 2020, transport demand will account for 70% of the total demand. The increasing trend of world demand will depend on the price. At low prices, demand is projected to be 115 million to 125 million barrels per day by 2020. 2. Oil prices. Oil prices have been volatile in the past and are expected to remain unchanged in the future. This situation is mainly determined by the special structural factors of oil suppliers. There are three types of predictions for oil prices. The basic forecast holds that at the price of 2000 U.S. dollars, after the drop of oil prices from 2001 to 2002,