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针对目前缺乏发电权成交价格影响因素与成交价格波动的关联性研究的现状,基于元胞自动机和复杂网络理论,进行交易个体行为变化对发电权市场成交价格波动的影响研究。首先,建立发电权交易市场的元胞自动机模型;其次,利用复杂网络理论为交易个体的电煤价格预期值判定行为建模;最终,基于上述两模型,通过将交易个体的判定行为引入到发电权元胞的状态转换机制中,构建个体行为对发电权成交价格波动影响的分析模型。仿真结果显示,所提模型能够清晰地描述出交易个体行为变化与发电权价格波动二者之间的关联关系,证实了交易个体行为的变化是引起发电权市场价格产生波动的重要因素。
Aiming at the current status of the research on the relationship between the factors that affect the transaction price and the transaction price volatility, this paper studies the impact of trading individual behavior changes on the trading price volatility of power generation market based on cellular automata and complex network theory. First, the cellular automaton model of power market is established. Secondly, the complex network theory is used to model the judgment of expected value of coal price. Thirdly, based on the above two models, In the mechanism of state transition of power generation cell, an analysis model of the influence of individual behavior on the price fluctuation of power generation rights is constructed. The simulation results show that the proposed model can clearly describe the relationship between the transaction behavior change and the price volatility of power generation rights. It is proved that the transaction individual behavior change is the important factor that causes the market price of generation rights to fluctuate.