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近年来,国内成品油供应紧张现象时有发生,究其原因,除成品油价格机制不顺外,我国炼油能力偏紧以及炼油布局不尽合理也是重要原因。本文在对我国炼油工业现状进行分析的基础上,根据未来国内经济增长形势并结合乙醇、甲醇、生物柴油、二甲醚等替代燃料发展趋势,预计2010年、2020年我国汽煤柴油需求量将分别达到2.3亿吨和3.4亿吨,届时,我国炼油能力则需达到4.4亿吨和6.1亿吨。
In recent years, the domestic supply of refined oil has occurred from time to time, the reason, in addition to the refined oil price mechanism is not smooth, tight oil refining capacity and refining the layout is not reasonable is also an important reason. Based on the analysis of the status quo of China’s oil refining industry, according to the future domestic economic growth combined with the development trend of alternative fuels such as ethanol, methanol, biodiesel and dimethyl ether, it is estimated that the demand of China’s coal, diesel and diesel will be Respectively, 230 million tons and 340 million tons, then, China’s refining capacity will need to reach 440 million tons and 610 million tons.