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目的了解南通市2005—2014年肝癌死亡率的变化趋势及定量估计影响因素。方法收集南通市2005—2014年肝癌的死亡数据,计算粗死亡率和标化死亡率,采用变化百分比(PC)和年均变化百分比(APC)描述变化趋势,运用差别分解法定量估计肝癌的影响因素。结果南通市肝癌平均粗死亡率为50.21/10万,标化死亡率为30.73/10万。男性粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为75.25/10万和46.40/10万,女性分别为26.31/10万和15.24/10万。2005—2014年肝癌粗死亡率在男性(APC=-2.66%,95%CI=-0.037~-0.018,P<0.01)、女性(APC=-1.29%,95%CI=-0.022~-0.004,P<0.05)和全人群(APC=-2.37%,95%CI=-0.032~-0.015,P<0.01)中均呈下降的趋势;标化死亡率在男性、女性和全人群中亦均呈下降的变化趋势。男性、女性和全人群人口因素对死亡率的贡献率分别是90.81%、284.30%和114.46%。结论南通市2005—2014年肝癌死亡率呈下降趋势,人口因素和非人口因素共同促进了肝癌死亡率的下降。
Objective To understand the trend of mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2005 to 2014 in Nantong and the influencing factors of quantitative estimation. Methods The death data of liver cancer from 2005 to 2014 in Nantong were collected to calculate the crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality rate. The change percentage (PC) and average annual percentage change (APC) were used to describe the change trend and the differential decomposition method was used to estimate the effect of HCC factor. Results The average crude fatality rate of liver cancer in Nantong City was 50.21 / 100000, and the standardized death rate was 30.73 / 100000. Crude death rate and standardized death rate were 75.25 / lakh and 46.40 / lakh in males and 26.31 / lakh and 15.24 / lakh in females respectively. The crude mortality rates of HCC from 2005 to 2014 were significantly higher in male (APC = -2.66%, 95% CI = -0.037-0.018, P <0.01) and in women (APC = -1.29%, 95% CI -0.022-0.004, P <0.05) and the whole population (APC = -2.37%, 95% CI = -0.032 ~ -0.015, P <0.01). The standardized mortality rates were also significantly lower in males, females and the whole population Falling trend. The contribution rate of the demographic factors to the death rates of males, females and the whole population is respectively 90.81%, 284.30% and 114.46%. Conclusion The death rate of hepatocellular carcinoma in Nantong City decreased from 2005 to 2014. The population factor and non-population factor together contributed to the decrease of mortality.