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管理者盈利预测在金融市场中具有重要的经济地位,我们选择了沪深两市2006-2009年的管理者盈利预测数据对管理者盈利预测与管理者过度自信、市场效应之间的关系进行了检验,与Hilary和Hsu的研究结论不同,我们发现:(1)管理者当前的盈利预测准确性会受到历史盈利预测准确性的影响,管理者在经历了较多的准确盈利预测之后会变得过度自信;(2)管理者在盈利预测上的过度自信会导致当前盈利预测的准确性降低;(3)管理者历史盈利预测的准确性并不会对市场造成明显影响,投资者和分析师在当前管理者盈利预测信息发布之后所做出的反应与管理者盈利预测历史准确的次数无显著的相关关系。本文的研究不仅丰富了国内有关盈利预测研究的相关文献,而且对提高我国资本市场上管理者盈利预测的准确性,加强市场参与者对上市公司信息披露的使用效率,进而提升投资决策具有重要的启示作用,同时对于我国监管机构完善信息披露制度具有重要政策意义。
The manager’s profit forecast has an important economic status in the financial market. We have selected the managers’ profit forecast data from 2006 to 2009 in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market to make a comparison between the manager’s profit forecast and managers overconfidence and the market effect Tests, unlike Hilary and Hsu’s findings, show that: (1) managers’ current earnings forecast accuracy is affected by the accuracy of historical earnings forecasts and managers become more experienced after more accurate earnings forecasts Overconfidence; (2) managers over-confidence in earnings forecasts will lead to lower the accuracy of the current earnings forecast; (3) the accuracy of the manager’s historical profit forecast does not have a significant impact on the market, investors and analysts There was no significant correlation between the response made after the current manager’s profit forecast information was issued and the number of managers’ profit forecast history accurately. The research in this paper not only enriches the relevant domestic literature on earnings forecasting research but also plays an important role in improving the accuracy of managers’ earnings forecasts in China’s capital markets, enhancing the efficiency of market participants in using information disclosure of listed companies and enhancing investment decisions Enlightenment role, at the same time for our regulatory agencies to improve the information disclosure system has important policy significance.