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2008年金融危机中,中国政府推出了规模庞大的财政刺激计划。在这样一个由政府主导的刺激计划中,与政府关系密切的国有企业是否会收益更多了?本文运用双差分法分析了刺激计划前后中国A股上市公司样本。本文发现,在刺激计划期间,对于一个在增长行业中的公司,从私营变为国有能增长17.1%的净利润增长和11.3%的营业收入增长。从另一个角度来看,10%的国有股比例增加能带来12.1%的净利润增长和8.42%的营业收入增长。而这增长率的差值主要来源于企业规模的扩张,而非盈利能力的增强。所以由政府制定和实施的中国四万亿刺激计划,为具有紧密政治联系的上市公司带来了可观的额外增长。
In the financial crisis of 2008, the Chinese government launched a huge fiscal stimulus plan. In such a government-led stimulus plan, will the state-owned enterprises closely related to the government benefit more? This article uses the double-difference method to analyze the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies before and after the stimulus plan. This paper finds that during the stimulus plan, a private-to-state increase of 17.1% in net profit and 11.3% in revenue growth for a company in the growth industry. From another perspective, a 10% increase in the proportion of state-owned shares will result in a net profit growth of 12.1% and a revenue growth of 8.42%. The difference between the growth rates mainly comes from the expansion of the scale of the enterprise, but not the enhancement of profitability. Therefore, the Chinese government’s four trillion stimulus plan formulated and implemented by the government has brought considerable additional growth to listed companies with close political ties.