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针对综合安全评估(FSA)“危险识别”中专家意见一致度的分析方法进行了讨论.介绍了IMO推荐的W一致度指数法,并通过计算对该方法的特性进行分析.同时,进一步利用模糊聚类分析法对专家意见的相似度进行计算,并根据专家个人评估结果之间的相似程度进行分类.结合各专家的背景因素,可以得出专家意见与各影响因素之间的关联,以便根据实际需要对专家意见赋予权重,使得危险识别的结果更加可靠.
A discussion is made on the method of analyzing the consistency of experts’ opinions in FSA / Hazard Identification. The W consensus index method recommended by IMO is introduced and the characteristics of the method are analyzed by calculation. At the same time, The fuzzy clustering analysis method is used to calculate the similarity of experts’ opinions, and the classification is based on the similarity degree between expert’s personal evaluation results.Combining the background factors of experts, we can get the correlation between expert opinion and each influencing factor, So as to give weight to the opinions of experts according to the actual needs, so that the result of risk identification is more reliable.