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日本新闻机构召集日本产业界技术权威人士,就下一世纪产业技术的发展方向进行了预测、讨论;还对东京、大阪、神户等主要大城市的居民,通过调查征询的形式,关于15年以后的2010年可能出现的新技术、新的社会服务,做了一次调查。现将对这些讨论和调查结果的收集、整理,报告如下。 有11位日本产业技术权威参加的下一世纪产业技术预测、讨论,主要视点集中在三个大方向上。 产业技术发展模式的大转化 支持日本经济从60年代以来持续高速成长的,是“重、厚、长、大”型传统产业。进入80年代后,迎来了“轻、薄、短、小”型产业为产业核心的经济时期。现在又在向情报化、信息化的多媒体的时代努力发展。围绕着产业技术的发展模式,权威人士异口同声都说将要有一个大的方向性转变。即由研究新技术,到研制产品,再开辟市场的传统开发模式,转变为先研究市场需求和需求的发展情况,预测未来市场产品要求,针对产品需求再研究所需要的技术的新模式。这就对至今为止的产业技术研究体制提出了新的挑战,需要向具有更强的柔软对应性能的方向快速发展。
Japanese news agencies convene Japanese industry authority figures to predict and discuss the development of industrial technology in the next century. Residents of major metropolitan cities such as Tokyo, Osaka and Kobe are also surveyed and asked about their status after 15 years The 2010 new technologies that may emerge, new social services, did a survey. We will now collect, organize and report on these discussions and findings as follows. There are 11 Japanese industrial technology authority to participate in the next century industrial technology forecast, discussion, the main focus of attention in three general directions. Large-scale Transformation of Industrial Technology Development Pattern The sustained and rapid growth of Japan’s economy since the 1960s is a traditional industry of “heavy, thick, long and big” type. Into the 80’s, ushered in the “light, thin, short, small” type of industry as the core of the economic period of the industry. Now they are making great efforts in the era of multimedia and information-based multimedia. Around the development of industrial technology model, authorities say in unison that there will be a major change in direction. From researching new technologies to developing products and then opening up the traditional development mode of the market, into a new model that first studies the development of market demand and demand, predicts future market product requirements, and researches the needed technologies for product demand. This poses new challenges to the industrial technology research system so far and requires a rapid development in the direction of stronger soft response performance.