我国天然气过剩并不是真正的过剩,而是现有的价格政策和价格机制造成的过剩,是能源产品相对价格不合理造成的过剩。天然气过剩论随着国内经济增速的放缓和天然气价格水平的提高,支持天然气快速发展的基本因素已经发生变化,主要是供应能力快速增长,对外依存度大幅提高,随着天然气进口管道、LNG接收站陆续投产和已签署长期贸易合同的陆续履约,我国天然气存在供应能力过剩的风险。市场化改革稳定步推进,天然气价格优势已不复存在。2013年和2014年两 The surplus of natural gas in China is not a true excess, but the surplus caused by the existing price policies and price mechanisms, and the surplus caused by the irrational relative prices of energy products. The theory of excess natural gas With the slowdown of domestic economic growth and the increase in the price level of natural gas, basic factors supporting the rapid development of natural gas have changed, mainly due to the rapid growth in supply capacity and a significant increase in foreign dependence, with natural gas import pipelines and LNG. The receiving stations have gradually put into production and the long-term trade contracts have been executed in succession, and China’s natural gas has the risk of excess supply capacity. The market-oriented reforms are progressing steadily, and the natural gas price advantage no longer exists. Between 2013 and 2014