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利用WCRP CMIP3气候模式对SRES A2、A1B和B1排放情景下东亚地区积雪面积的未来变化趋势进行了预测,结果表明,未来东亚地区积雪面积将呈现减少趋势,在同一种排放情景下,春季的减小趋势最大,冬季次之,秋季再次之,夏季最小。比较不同区域之间的积雪面积变化,冬、春季青藏高原积雪面积变化趋势要明显大于东亚大陆北部,秋季二者差异不大。对不同排放情景而言,SRESA2情景减小趋势最大,A1B次之,B1最小。地表气温和降雪量变化是造成积雪面积减小的主要原因,但在不同的区域和季节,对积雪面积变化趋势的贡献有明显差异。“,”Using the snow cover fraction（SNC） output by 8 WCRP CMIP3climate models under SRES A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the trend of SNC in East Asia in future is analyzed.Results show that SNC is likely to decrease in East Asia continent,where SNC decreases the fastest in spring（MAM）,then winter（DJF） and autumn（SON）,and the slowest in summer（JJA）,under the same scenario.In spring and winter,the SNC decreases faster in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau than in northern East Asia,while in autumn there is little difference between them.As for different scenarios,SRES A2 has the largest decrease trend,then A1B,and B1 has the least trend.The decrease of SNC is mainly caused by the changes of surface air temperature and snowfall,but they have different contributions to SNC trend in different regions and seasons.