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采用潜力衰减法对塔里木河下游铁干里克绿洲农业资源条件进行了分析,估算了土地生产潜力,并采用土地生产潜力对气候因素的敏感度和适应能力级别评价了该区域对气候变化的响应。研究表明:在保证充足的灌溉用水和土壤理化性质良好的条件下,研究区土地生产潜力以5.66%的年增长率递增。研究区土地生产潜力对温度和降水的敏感度不大,对全球气候变化的适应能力也较强,人工引水水资源缺乏,土壤盐渍化程度较高、土壤水肥较差是造成研究区土壤生产潜力低下的主要原因。
Potential decay method was used to analyze the agricultural resources of Tieqianlike oasis in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The potential of land productivity was estimated and the response to climate change was evaluated using the sensitivity and adaptability of land productivity to climate factors . The results show that under the conditions of sufficient irrigation water and soil physical and chemical properties, the land productivity in the study area increases at an annual rate of 5.66%. The potential productivity of land in the study area is not sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and it has strong adaptability to global climate change. There is a lack of artificial water diversion resources and a high degree of soil salinization. The poor soil water and fertilizer results in soil production in the study area The main reason for low potential.