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目的了解广东省珠海市2006-2008年流感流行趋势及其病毒株变化特点,预测2009年流行趋势,为本地区防控流感提供科学依据。方法收集2006-2008年珠海市流感监测哨点流感样病例(ILI)监测和暴发疫情监测资料信息,医院门诊、暴发疫情的流感病毒病原学监测资料,进行综合分析。采用季节性自回归移动平均(ARIMA)构建模型预测2009年ILI的趋势。结果2006-2008年珠海市流感流行大致呈3-4月和6-7月的双峰型,平均ILI%为4.1%;门诊报告ILI中<5岁儿童为主,占50.3%,构成比逐年上升。哨点医院流感病毒分离阳性率为10.0%,2006年流感季节类型为A(H1N1)型和B型混合型,2007年为A(H3N2)型占优势,2008年为A(H1N1)型和A(H3N2)型混合型。暴发疫情主要发生在3-6月,流行病毒株与医院哨点监测基本一致。结论珠海市流感流行呈现春夏季双峰型,ILI的高峰较流感病毒早4周左右;H3型、H1型、B型流感病毒交替成为年分离优势株。预测2009年季节性流感流行趋势平稳。
Objective To understand the epidemic trend of influenza in Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2008 and the characteristics of the virus strains in Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province. It is expected to predict the epidemic trend in 2009 and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of influenza in this area. Methods The data of surveillance and outbreak surveillance of influenza-like sentinel influenza (ILI) surveillance and outbreak in Zhuhai from 2006 to 2008 were collected. The etiological surveillance data of influenza virus in hospital outpatient and outbreak were collected for comprehensive analysis. A seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of ILI in 2009. Results The prevalence of influenza in Zhuhai during 2006-2008 was roughly bimodal in March-April and June-July, with an average ILI% of 4.1%. Out-patient reports were mainly children <5 years of age in ILI, accounting for 50.3% rise. Sentinel Hospital, the positive rate of influenza virus isolation was 10.0%, the flu season in 2006 as A (H1N1) type and B mixed type, in 2007 for the A (H3N2) type dominant in 2008 for the A (H1N1) type and A (H3N2) type hybrid. Outbreaks occurred mainly in March to June, the epidemic virus strains and hospital sentinel monitoring basically the same. Conclusion The prevalence of influenza in Zhuhai City was bimodal in spring and summer. The peak of ILI was about 4 weeks earlier than that of the influenza virus. Influenza H3, H1 and B were alternately dominant strains. Predict the steady trend of seasonal influenza in 2009.