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国内关于免征额对收入不平等的研究并未充分考虑个体对政策的反馈作用,这很可能导致政策评估结果的偏差和失真。有鉴于此,本文先使用Heckman三阶段估计法和DID方法分析了免征额提高对个体劳动行为的影响,发现其会促进个体劳动供给时间较明显的增加且女性比男性有更大的增幅,这会改变税前的工资分布。在此基础上,本文还构建了带有行为效应的shapley分解,在统一框架下分析了免征额提高对工资不平等的直接分配效应和间接行为效应。结果表明行为效应不容忽视,其解释了工资收入不平等变化的13%~50%并加剧了不平等,如果不考虑行为效应将低估免征额对不平等的真实影响。另外,免征额的设置要与整体收入分布相协调,如果设置过高,直接分配效应也会加剧工资不平等。
Domestic studies on tax exemption and income inequality do not give sufficient consideration to individual feedback on policy, which is likely to lead to bias and distortion of policy assessment results. In view of this, this paper first analyzes the impact of the increase of exemption on individual labor behavior using Heckman's three-stage estimation method and DID method, and finds that it will promote the obvious increase of individual labor supply time and the increase of women more than that of male, This will change the pre-tax salary distribution. On this basis, this dissertation also builds a shapley decomposition with behavioral effects and analyzes the direct distribution effect and indirect behavior effect of exemption increase on wage inequality in a unified framework. The results show that behavioral effects can not be ignored, explaining 13% -50% of wage inequality inequality and exacerbating inequality, which would underestimate the true impact of exemption on inequality, regardless of behavioral effects. In addition, the setting of exemption amount should be coordinated with the distribution of overall income. If it is set too high, the direct distribution effect will aggravate the wage inequality.