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《隧道施工技术规范》规定,以变形监测信息作为隧道安全质量控制的主要依据,而变形分析、诊断、预测预报等工作,离不开数理统计理论方法的支持。笔者在隧拱沉降监测过程中,运用自(回)归理论、递(推回)归方法,成功开展了较准确的预测工作,发现自归理论具有对可疑数据敏感、模型调整灵活、计算程式化、逐日预报方便的特征;递归方法具备抗干扰能力强、模型形态稳健、适宜短期预报的优长。
The “Tunnel Construction Technical Specification” stipulates that deformation monitoring information is the main basis for tunnel safety quality control. Deformation analysis, diagnosis, forecasting and other work can not be done without the support of mathematical statistics theory. In the course of monitoring the settlement of tunnel arch, the author carried out a more accurate forecasting work using the self-back-to-back theory and the push-back method, and found that self-return theory is sensitive to suspicious data and the model is flexible to adjust. And convenient for daily forecasting. The recursive method has the advantages of strong anti-interference ability, robust morphological model and long-term forecasting.