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随着社会和技术的不断演进,中国社会舆情整体发展呈现出明显的规律性。根据社会舆情演变的不同特点和阶段,本研究将其演进分为三个阶段:1949—1976年唐山大地震,1976—2012年十八大的召开,2012—2015年十八大以来。在每个阶段选取若干个具有代表性的事件,分析其中技术、社会和政治力量的博弈关系。研究最后得出中国社会舆情演进的基本规律:中国社会舆情生态演变是个政治、技术、社会三方力量博弈的动态变化过程,这其中技术在不断促进民间社会力量的强大,成为社会话语力量对比的重要推手和变革力量,政治力量与技术手段的零和竞争关系决定着未来社会舆情演变的基本方向。
With the continuous evolution of society and technology, the overall development of social public opinion in China shows obvious regularity. According to the different characteristics and stages of the evolution of social public opinion, this study divides its evolution into three stages: the Tangshan Earthquake of 1949-1976, the 18th Congress of 1976-2012, and the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012-2015. At each stage, we select a few representative events and analyze the game relationship between technical, social and political forces. The study finally concludes the basic law of evolution of public opinion in Chinese society: the ecological evolution of public opinion in Chinese society is a dynamic process of the game of the forces of the three parties in politics, technology and society. Among these technologies, the continuous promotion of the strength of civil society becomes an important contrast between social discourse forces The zero-sum competition between pushing hands and changing forces, political forces and technological means determines the basic direction of the evolution of social public opinion in the future.