国际油公司在全球开展油气投资活动,必然面临形形色色的风险,比如勘探风险、开发风险、地缘政治风险、油价变化风险等。在国内,绝大多数油公司极其关注勘探、开发风险,这是勘探开发专业在国内石油上游领域属于“主干”专业的一个重要原因。地缘政治往往被定位在定性分析层面,很难在国际油气项目投资风险中进行量化评估。而当油价预测已然被称为“伪科学”的同时,对油价风险的识别必然难以得到足够的重视 International oil companies in the global investment in oil and gas, is bound to face all kinds of risks, such as exploration risk, development risk, geopolitical risk, oil price changes risk. In China, most oil companies are extremely concerned about exploration and development risks, which is an important reason that exploration and development professionals belong to the “backbone” specialty in the upstream oil field. Geopolitics are often positioned at the qualitative analysis level and are difficult to quantify in the investment risk of international oil and gas projects. While oil price forecasting is already known as “pseudoscience”, the identification of oil risk will inevitably get enough attention