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2001年秋冬油菜籽播种面积有所扩大,今年夏收油菜籽是否会出现卖难呢?初步测算,即使增产,对油菜籽及油料市场的影响也不大。但是,考虑到进口因素,今年春夏播油菜籽,要密切注意国内外市场变化,不宜盲目扩种。一、夏收油菜籽面积扩大,对市场影响有限按油菜籽市场年度计算,估计2001/2002年度(2001年6月初至2002年5月底)油菜籽国内供给量(2001年产量+本年度进口量)在1230万吨左右,比2000/2001年度(1374万吨)减少100多万吨,有一定量的加工需求缺口。2001年夏收油菜籽上市场期间,农民惜售,收购价格有所提高,这是今年夏收油菜籽面积增加的直接原因。
In the fall and winter of 2001, the sown area of rapeseed has been expanded. Will rapeseed oil be harvested in this summer? Preliminary estimates show that even if the increase in output, the impact on rapeseed and oilseed markets is not significant. However, given the import factor, sowing rapeseed in spring and summer of this year should pay close attention to the changes in domestic and foreign markets and should not blindly expand its output. First, the summer harvest rapeseed area, limited impact on the market According to the annual calculation of the rapeseed market, estimated 2001/2002 (early June 2001 to the end of May 2002) rapeseed domestic supply (2001 production + import this year) in About 12.3 million tons, a decrease of over 1 million tons over 2000/2001 (13.74 million tons), with a certain amount of processing demand gap. During the summer harvest of rapeseed in the summer of 2001, farmers reluctantly sold and the purchase price increased. This is the direct reason for the increase in the area for rapeseed oil collected this summer.