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The novel coronavirus outbreak has brought severe shocks to global supply and industrial chains. The longer the pandemic lasts， the bigger the impact will be. Some supply chains could possibly break down. Being the powerhouse of global manufacturing， the accelerating production resumption in China is conducive to the development of the global manufacturing industry. However， as the coronavirus spreads around the world， some manufacturing enterprises in the U.S. and Europe may well have to shut down， which will drag down the global economy in general. Some experts estimate that the 2020 global growth rate will be the lowest since the 2008 global fi nancial crisis.
Some sectors of the economy have been struck particularly hard by the outbreak， especially the travel， hospitality and transportation industries. Some airlines may not be able to survive the current crisis. The auto manufacturing， electrical and electronics as well as pharmaceutical sectors have also seen great pressure， as the pandemic forces intermediate product manufacturers to suspend business and affects consumer demand and supply chains.
The pandemic will also have a big impact on international projects of major significance. Contractors may well be confronted with challenges in fulfi lling contracts， fi nancing and getting employees to restart work. Consequently， some projects might have to be postponed， halted or even canceled.
The shrinking international trade is another concern. Figures from the World Trade Organization show that global crossborder trade saw a year-on-year drop of about 10 percent in February. A worldwide slowdown of trade will lead to a decline in the global economic growth.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development （OECD） predicted in a report released on March 2 that the U.S. growth rate this year will drop from 2 percent to 1.9 percent， that of Japan from 0.6 percent to 0.2 percent， eurozone from 1.1 percent to 0.9 percent and China from 5.7 percent to 4.9 percent. Such a prediction may be over-optimistic. The global economic growth rate in 2020 could be much lower than the OECD’s forecast.
The pandemic has heightened the risk of a global economic crisis. Recently， erosion of confi dence in the global capital market， coupled with a plunge in the international stock markets resulting from plummeting oil prices， has led the world into a short-term recession. The temporary recession can evolve into a full-blown crisis if the pandemic lasts， if major powers fail to come up with effective measures， or if coordinated relief efforts from the international community come too late. It’s safe to say that the risk is increasing. The international community should have a clear understanding of the current situation and stay alert to the dangers.
Some sectors of the economy have been struck particularly hard by the outbreak， especially the travel， hospitality and transportation industries. Some airlines may not be able to survive the current crisis. The auto manufacturing， electrical and electronics as well as pharmaceutical sectors have also seen great pressure， as the pandemic forces intermediate product manufacturers to suspend business and affects consumer demand and supply chains.
The pandemic will also have a big impact on international projects of major significance. Contractors may well be confronted with challenges in fulfi lling contracts， fi nancing and getting employees to restart work. Consequently， some projects might have to be postponed， halted or even canceled.
The shrinking international trade is another concern. Figures from the World Trade Organization show that global crossborder trade saw a year-on-year drop of about 10 percent in February. A worldwide slowdown of trade will lead to a decline in the global economic growth.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development （OECD） predicted in a report released on March 2 that the U.S. growth rate this year will drop from 2 percent to 1.9 percent， that of Japan from 0.6 percent to 0.2 percent， eurozone from 1.1 percent to 0.9 percent and China from 5.7 percent to 4.9 percent. Such a prediction may be over-optimistic. The global economic growth rate in 2020 could be much lower than the OECD’s forecast.
The pandemic has heightened the risk of a global economic crisis. Recently， erosion of confi dence in the global capital market， coupled with a plunge in the international stock markets resulting from plummeting oil prices， has led the world into a short-term recession. The temporary recession can evolve into a full-blown crisis if the pandemic lasts， if major powers fail to come up with effective measures， or if coordinated relief efforts from the international community come too late. It’s safe to say that the risk is increasing. The international community should have a clear understanding of the current situation and stay alert to the dangers.