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针对当前有关疾病“三间”分布的聚集性分析这类方法中存在着的通病，本文尝试运用趋势面分析方法来对分布建模．为此，我们廓清了广于“聚集性”的“趋势性”之概念，将二元多项式的趋势面模型拓广到1～3元；依据设立“对照”原则，导出了与人口的人群、空间、时间分布及其联合相关分布相对应的7个疾病的分布，并且利用其相互间的可对比关系可以作出有关地理相关性的推断．同时，对各分布的趋势面模型拟合改用逐步回归代替完全回归．用这套建模方法成功地对一个实例作了研究．最后，讨论了建模中的有关问题，特别指出了设立“对照”原则在数学应用的方法论上的普遍意义，即数学应用的思维模式与实验科学的思维模式的一致性．
Aiming at the current common problems in such methods of aggregation analysis of “three” distributions of diseases, this paper attempts to use trend surface analysis to model the distribution. To this end, we have clarified the concept of “trendiness” broadly based on “aggregativeness” and extended the trend surface model of the bivariate polynomial to 1 to 3 yuan. Based on the principle of “contrasting”, we derived the population-based population, Space, time distribution and their associated distribution of the distribution of the seven diseases, and the use of their mutual contrast can make inferences about the geographical relevance. In the meantime, stepwise regression was used instead of the complete regression on fitting the trend surface models of each distribution. Using this set of modeling methods, we successfully studied an example. Finally, it discusses the related problems in modeling, and especially points out the universal significance of establishing the principle of “contrast” in the methodology of mathematical application, that is, the consistency between the thinking mode of mathematical application and the thinking mode of experimental science.