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本文从社会网络分析角度揭示群体性突发事件的演化机理,建立了维权型群体性突发事件社会网络结构与策略的协同演化模型。首先,考虑变化的参与者心智模型和博弈环境,建立了五阶段动态博弈模型,在此基础上根据事态发展三个阶段讨论社会网络结构与策略协同演化机制;然后,根据弱势群体的社会网络拓扑特征,建立了维权型群体性突发事件社会网络结构与策略的协同演化模型,得出理性主义、利他主义和机会主义三种社会网络的最低抗议人数。研究表明:利他主义社会网络的最低临界人数较少,机会主义社会网络中核心组织成员需要承担更大的抗议成本。最后,Netlogo社会网络仿真分析和某住宅小区锅炉房扩建冲突的案例分析,验证了理论分析结果。
This article reveals the evolving mechanism of group emergencies from the perspective of social network analysis and establishes a co-evolution model of the social network structure and tactics of group-based group emergencies. Firstly, a five-stage dynamic game model is established considering the changed participants’ mental model and game environment. Based on this, the social network structure and strategy co-evolution mechanism are discussed according to the three stages of the development. Then, based on the social network topology of vulnerable groups, Characteristics, and established a co-evolution model of social network structure and tactics of activist group emergencies, and reached the minimum number of protesters in the three social networks of rationalism, altruism and opportunism. Studies show that the minimum critical mass for altruistic social networks is small, and that members of core organizations in opportunist social networks need to bear greater protest costs. Finally, the case analysis of Netlogo social network simulation analysis and the expansion of a residential district boiler room verify the theoretical analysis.