Projection on precipitation frequency of different intensities and precipitation amount in the Lanca

来源 :气候变化研究进展(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:f40042
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
In the Lancang?Mekong River basin (LMRB), agriculture, dominating the local economy, faces increasing challenges in water supply under climate change. The projection of future precipitation in this basin is essential for understanding the challenges. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to project the LMRB precipitation. Comparing with the historical period (1986-2005), we analyzed the changes of both the projected precipitation amount and the frequency of rainless (100 mm d-1) for three periods, namely the near-term (2016-2035), mid-term (2046-2065), and long-term (2080-2099). The results indicate that the precipitation amount during the wet season (April-October) is expected to increase in most areas of the basin for the three periods. As for the precipitation during the dry season (November-March), an increase is projected in most areas for the near-term, while an increase in the lower reach of the basin and a decrease in the upper and middle reach for the mid-term and long-term. The precipitation reduction is expected to be greatest in Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, and Yunnan province of China for the mid-term. The frequency of precipitation in different intensities has prominent regional and temporal differences. During the wet season, the days of rainless and light rain are expected to decrease in the middle reach, whereas the days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm increase. This feature is especially strong in southern Thailand, southern Laos and Cambodia in the near-term and in Laos and Thailand for the mid-term and long-term. During the dry season, there are projected increasing rainless days and decreasing days of precipitation for the other intensities in the middle reach, and opposite in the rest area of the basin. These projected precipitation changes have potential various impact in different parts of the basin. The middle reach would likely face increasing flood risks because of more days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, as well as more precipitation. Yunnan, Myanmar, Thailand and Laos would probably be the center of drought threatens during the dry season due to the increment of rainless days and the precipitation reduction. Besides, the seawater intrusion during the dry season in the near-term and mid-term would be more serious as a result of the precipitation decrease in southern Vietnam.
其他文献
研究表型可塑性和遗传变异在植物表型分化中的相对作用,有助于预测全球环境变化下的植物群落组成和生态系统功能的变化。芦苇(Phragmites australis)是全球性广布的草本植物,种内变异丰富,在我国西北和东部均存在多个分化稳定的生态型,但中国芦苇在更大尺度上的表型研究还非常匮乏。将位于黄河上游的宁夏平原和黄河下游的黄河三角洲作为研究区域,通过野外调查和同质种植园实验对芦苇自然种群的植物功能性
国家森林公园作为生态福利供给的载体之一,具有带动经济发展、提供文化教育以及游憩、康养的复合功能,是平衡经济社会发展和生态保护,满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的重要途径。从生态福利的概念出发,结合系统理论,以黑龙江省为例构建了国家森林公园生态福利供给评价指标体系,并利用解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modeling, ISM)确定了生态福利供给系统内部要素的递阶结
Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can con
丝状真菌(Filamentous fungi)作为重要的工业发酵微生物,在有机酸、蛋白质及次级代谢产物等关键生物基产品生产方面发挥着重要作用.自20世纪90年代代谢工程理念提出以来,尤其
由美国农业部土壤保持局开发的SCS-CN模型在其他国家地区使用过程中的适用性仍存在争议,直接采用其给定的初损率λ来计算CN值易出现问题,尤其对于中国黄土高原这样具有复杂自然环境的干旱半干旱生态系统来说,有必要针对CN模型参数做进一步校正。基于地处黄土丘陵区的定西共计47个径流小区连续五年生长期的观测数据,采用平均值法计算典型植被和整地类型下的CN值,并结合前人在不同坡度下对初损率λ的率定结果进行校
大肠杆菌作为一种重要的模式工业微生物,在医药、化工、农业等方面具有广泛的应用.近30年来,多种代谢工程改造的新策略和新技术,被用于设计、构建和优化大肠杆菌化学品细胞工
14-16元环的大环内酯类抗生素(Macrolide antibiotics,MA)是临床上重要的抗感染药物.随着细菌耐药性的不断增加,迫切需要研发出新型MA来应对耐药菌.通过MA与核糖体靶点的相互
在人类活动和自然环境变化的相互作用下,生态脆弱区生态系统随之变迁,荒漠化、盐碱化、水土流失、植被生产力下降等是生态脆弱区面临的重要问题。生态化学计量学作为当前多学科交叉研究的热点领域,强调从生态系统能量与元素平衡角度,揭示元素生物地球化学循环和生态系统对环境变化的调控机制。为了促进对生态脆弱区碳(C)、氮(N)、磷(P)生态化学计量的深入理解,本文重点总结了近年来有关我国典型生态脆弱区植物、凋落物
The Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are the two most important environmental conventions for bi
维生素是维持人体生命活动必需的一类有机物质,机体本身一般不能合成或合成量不足,因此需经食物或其他强化产品获取.目前,维生素产品已广泛应用于医药、食品添加剂、饲料添加