目的分析新医改背景下,军队医院因为结余率下降带来的影响。方法建立军队医院军人卫生经费的系统动力学仿真模型,设置结余率下降模拟方案并进行结果分析。结果与结论军队医院必须正视结余率下降带来的负面影响,积极推进卫生经费补偿机制改革,大力增加卫生事业费投入,加强监督管理,严格落实“收支两条线原则”。 Objective To analyze the impact of military hospitals on the decline of the balance due to the new medical reform. Methods The system dynamics simulation model of military health expenditure in military hospitals was established, and the simulation program of declining balance rate was set up and the results analyzed. Results and Conclusion Military hospitals must face the negative impact brought by the decline in the balance rate, actively promote the reform of the health funding compensation mechanism, greatly increase investment in health service expenses, and strengthen supervision and administration, and strictly implement the “principle of two lines of revenue and expenditure.”