Paine Webber Group公司的股票战略分析家Edward Kerschner说,如果历史可以作为一面镜子的话,那么我们可以认为,目前对电子商务发展速度的估计实在是太保守了,Kerschner对一群投资者说:“大的技术革新总是超过任何人的想象,即使是最大胆的预测可能也是相当保守的。“例如,人们对早期汽车工业的发展的预测就是因为 Edward Kerschner, equity strategist at Paine Webber Group, said that if history can be used as a mirror, then we can think that the current estimate of the speed of e-commerce development is too conservative, and Kerschner said to a group of investors: "Large Technological innovation has always surpassed anyone’s imagination, and even the boldest predictions may be quite conservative. “For example, people’s predictions about the development of the early automobile industry were