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本文采用一个扩展的古诺模型分析证明了贸易模式与不完全汇率传递的关系。首先,本文从破解人民币升值背景下中国贸易规模和贸易顺差仍持续增长这一谜题出发,分析了中国贸易模式和出口结构特征,描述了中国在国际生产价值链上的角色,阐述了垂直型产业内模式和中间产品占比较大的贸易结构对人民币汇率传递水平的影响。其次,对Dornbusch采用的古诺模型进行拓展,引入贸易模式变量,构建了一个局部均衡的理论模型。模型分析表明,产业市场结构、本国供应商的市场地位和贸易模式是影响出口价格的汇率传递水平的重要因素。最后,根据模型分析结论,提出相应的政策建议。
This paper uses an extended Cournot model to prove the relationship between trade patterns and incomplete exchange rate transfers. First of all, starting from the puzzle of cracking down the background of RMB appreciation, China’s trade scale and trade surplus continue to grow. This article analyzes the characteristics of China’s trade pattern and export structure, describes China’s role in the international production value chain, and expounds the vertical The impact of intra-industry mode and trade structure with large proportion of intermediate products on the exchange rate of RMB exchange rate. Secondly, expand the Cournot model adopted by Dornbusch, introduce trade model variables and construct a theoretical model of partial equilibrium. The model analysis shows that the industrial market structure, the market position of domestic suppliers and the trade pattern are the important factors that affect the exchange rate of export prices. Finally, according to the conclusions of the model analysis, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.