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在比较分析现有各种评估方法的基础上,提出基于证据推理的安全性评估方法。在评估过程中,首先确定评价因素集及相应的权重和评价等级及评价等级效用值,然后利用解析算法进行证据的合成,并根据方案最终效用值到各评语等级效用值之间距离的大小确定评价等级。最后,将该方法运用于某客运索道安全评估,得出客运索道安全性评价为较好,并通过与模糊综合评价方法相比,进一步论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。
On the basis of comparative analysis of various existing evaluation methods, a safety assessment method based on evidence reasoning is proposed. In the process of evaluation, the set of evaluation factors and the corresponding weights and evaluation levels and the utility value of the evaluation level are firstly determined, and then the evidence synthesis is performed by using the analysis algorithm and determined according to the distance between the final utility value of the program and the utility value of each comment level Rating level. Finally, this method is applied to the safety assessment of a passenger ropeway, and the safety of passenger ropeway is evaluated as good. Compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method are further demonstrated.