1981—1987年,研究了稻纵卷叶螟的自然种群生命表。经回归系数b值法(Podler等,1975)分析表明,一至二龄和三龄幼虫期是影响种群数量变动的关键时期,捕食性天敌及气候因子所导致的害虫失踪是数量变动的关键因子。并根据生命表资料和对关键因素建立亚模型的方法,组建了自第三代迁入蛾量起预测当代三龄幼虫数量的预测式。本模型在郑州地区应用准确率达80％以上,有效地指导了防治。 From 1981 to 1987, the natural population life table of rice leaf roller was studied. The results of regression coefficient b method (Podler et al., 1975) showed that the first to second and third instar larvae were the key periods that affected the population variation. Predation of natural enemies and the disappearance of pests due to climatic factors were the key factors in the quantitative change. Based on the life table data and the sub-model of the key factors, a prediction formula for predicting the number of third-generation larvae in the third generation since the third generation was established. The accuracy of the model applied in Zhengzhou reached more than 80%, effectively guiding the prevention and treatment.