粮食作物受气象因素的影响,各年间产量波动较大。为了及时准确地预报粮食产量,近几年来,国内农业气象工作者在研制产量预报方法和业务服务方面,作了许多工作。但是,所采用的统计预报模式的方法,多是通过对社会产量与气象要素、大气环流特征参数、下垫面特性以及太阳活动等关系的分析建立的,没有考虑作物的实际生育状况和作物本身的生物学特 Crops are subject to meteorological factors, with large fluctuations in production over the years. In order to forecast the grain yield timely and accurately, in recent years, domestic agrometeorologists have done a lot of work in developing the yield forecasting methods and business services. However, most of the methods used in statistical forecasting model are based on the analysis of the relationship between social production and meteorological elements, atmospheric circulation parameters, underlying characteristics and solar activity, without considering the actual crop status and the crop itself Biological special