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20世纪90年代以来,长三角地区经济发展迅速、产业结构调整效果显著,但区域内部发展仍不平衡,长三角各城市也相应呈现出四个层次的发展格局。本文在分析长三角四层次经济发展现状及产业结构变动趋势的基础上,对长三角社会经济复杂系统进行建模分析,利用1995～2005年历史数据对长三角未来15年经济发展及产业结构状况做出预测,并对长三角未来发展提出相应建议。
Since the 1990s, the economy in the Yangtze River Delta has been developing rapidly with remarkable results in the adjustment of industrial structure. However, the intra-regional development remains uneven and the cities in the Yangtze River Delta have also shown a four-level development pattern. Based on the analysis of the current situation of economic development at four levels in the Yangtze River Delta and the changing trend of industrial structure, this paper analyzes the complex socio-economic system in the Yangtze River Delta and analyzes the economic development and industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta in the next 15 years by using the historical data from 1995 to 2005 Make a prediction and make corresponding suggestions on the future development of the Yangtze River Delta.