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根据城市化与生态环境耦合含义及框架,利用SD的原理和方法,以江苏省为例,建立了区域城市化与生态环境耦合的SD模型,并选取五种典型发展模式进行策略情景模拟。分析表明:①区域城市化与生态环境交互耦合具有复杂性、非线性和时变性的特点,SD模型分析此类问题具有明显的适用性。模型的历史数据拟合的误差小,反映它具有一定可靠性,能在一定程度上解释区域城市化与生态环境交互耦合的复杂行为,评估城市化对生态环境的潜在效应;②在不同调控策略的发展模式下,该省城市化与生态环境耦合的情景存在较大差异,五种模式都有其显著的比较优势,同时也存在明显的发展缺陷;③根据该省的发展特点和区域发展差异并结合城市化发展一般规律,分阶段和分地域推进人口城市化发展模式和社会城市化发展模式,可以实现该省人口、经济、城市化和生态环境协调发展的目的。
According to the meaning and framework of the coupling between urbanization and eco-environment, using the principle and method of SD, taking Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper establishes the SD model of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling and selects five typical development modes for strategic scenario simulation. The analysis shows that: (1) The coupling between urbanization and eco-environment is complex, nonlinear and time-varying, and the SD model has obvious applicability in analyzing such problems. The error of fitting the historical data of the model is small, reflecting that it has certain reliability, can explain the complicated behavior of interaction between urbanization and ecological environment to a certain extent, and evaluate the potential effect of urbanization on the ecological environment; ②In different control strategies The pattern of the coupling of urbanization and eco-environment in the province is quite different. All five modes have their significant comparative advantages and obvious development defects. (3) According to the development characteristics of the province and the differences in regional development In combination with the general law of urbanization, we can promote the population urbanization development model and the social urbanization development model in stages and sub-regions so as to achieve the goal of coordinated development of population, economy, urbanization and ecological environment in the province.