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文章试图从农业发展的视角对未来中国经济增长进行讨论,通过对不同收入阶段国家农业结构比重和经济增长率变化趋势进行比较发现,继续推动农业结构转型有助于经济体跨越中等收入阶段。有鉴于此,通过构建理论模型,并利用中国31个省市和253个地级市的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明自中国进入中等收入阶段以来,农业部门劳动节约型技术进步有助于降低农业结构比重,而农业结构比重的下降促进了经济增长,这种影响效果随着中国人均收入水平的提升以及农业结构比重的降低变得更为明显。因此,在当前中国经济增长放缓的背景下,提升农业部门劳动节约型技术进步仍可为延续“中国奇迹”做出贡献,对中国实现跨越中等收入阶段有着十分重要的意义。
The article tries to discuss the future economic growth in China from the perspective of agricultural development. By comparing the proportion of agricultural structure and the growth rate of economic growth in different income stages, it is found that continuing to promote agricultural restructuring helps the economy to cross the middle-income stage. In view of this, by building a theoretical model and using panel data from 31 provinces and 253 prefecture-level cities in China for empirical analysis, the results show that since China entered the middle-income stage, labor-saving technological advances in the agricultural sector have helped to reduce The proportion of agricultural structure, and the decline in the proportion of agricultural structure to promote economic growth, the impact of this effect with China’s per capita income level and the proportion of agricultural structure has become more apparent decline. Therefore, under the current economic slowdown in China, improving labor-saving technological progress in the agricultural sector can still contribute to the continuation of “China’s miracle.” It is of great significance to China in its realization of its leap-forward construction of a middle-income stage.