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本文应用油松分布和负二项分布的概率模型进行拟合,通过脊髓灰质炎(简称脊灰)病例的时间分布,对我市的脊灰防治工作进行评价。我市开展计免工作后(1981～1988年)共发病25例,年均发病率为0.65/10万,是计免要求控制指标(<0.1/10万)的6.5倍。月份病例均数为0.2604,方差为0.6367。统计分析结果表明,实行计免后脊灰病例
In this paper, the probability model of Pinus tabulaeformis distribution and negative binomial distribution was used to fit the poliovirus control system, and the polio control work in our city was evaluated by the time distribution of polio (polio) cases. Twenty-five cases were found to be free from work in our city (from 1981 to 1988), with an average annual incidence of 0.65 / 100 000, which is 6.5 times of the required control index (<0.1 / 100,000). The monthly mean number of cases was 0.2604 with a variance of 0.6367. Statistical analysis showed that after the implementation of polio exemption polio cases