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本文以传统的利率理论和国际经济理论为基础,以1980年至2012年年度的出口占进口比,一年期贷款利率及人民币汇率指数为依据研究双率与进出口之间的关系。通过建立了VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差的方法考察了变量之间的动态影响关系。实证结果表明,汇率对出进口比值有负的影响,利率对出进口比值有正的影响,利率汇率之间关联不大。
Based on the traditional interest rate theory and international economic theory, this paper studies the relationship between double-rate and the import and export based on the export-to-import ratio, one-year lending rate and RMB exchange rate index from 1980 to 2012. Through the establishment of VAR model, the impulse response function and prediction variance are used to examine the dynamic influence of variables. The empirical results show that the exchange rate has a negative impact on the ratio of exports to imports, the positive impact of interest rates on the ratio of exports to imports, and the low correlation between interest rates and exchange rates.