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[目的]描述和分析上海市甲状腺癌发病趋势,为进一步开展相关研究和完善相关防治策略提供依据。[方法]上海市市区甲状腺癌年度发病数据来自上海市恶性肿瘤登记系统,覆盖年份为1981—2010年。采用世界标准人口计算年龄标化发病率。趋势描述和分析采用美国国立癌症研究所建立的平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析方法及Joinpoint软件。标化率差异比较采用Z检验。[结果]1981—2010年上海市市区居民男女性甲状腺癌标化发病率呈上升趋势,平均每年分别上升7.71%(95%CI:6.50%~8.95%)和7.05%(95%CI:4.97%~9.18%),女性甲状腺癌标化发病率是男性的2.59~4.09倍。除了0~19岁以外,各年龄组的发病率均表现出上升趋势,平均每年上升13%以上;甲状腺癌发病高危年龄组逐渐集中于45~64组。2002—2010年,甲状腺癌的病理学类型以乳头状癌为主,占比始终高于53%。2007—2010年乳头状癌、滤泡状癌和女性髓样癌标化发病率较2002—2006年增长至少1倍。[结论]甲状腺癌在上海的增长趋势与全球以及部分发达国家的情况相似。加强相关评估和研究将有助于更清晰地认识上海市甲状腺癌流行病学特点,为完善相关防治策略奠定基础。
[Objective] To describe and analyze the trend of thyroid cancer incidence in Shanghai and provide evidence for further research and improvement of related control strategies. [Method] The annual incidence of thyroid cancer in Shanghai was from Shanghai Malignant Tumor Registration System, covering the year of 1981-2010. Calculated age-standardized morbidity using the world’s standard population. The trend description and analysis were based on the average annual percentage change (AAPC) analysis established by the National Cancer Institute and the Joinpoint software. Standardization rate differences using the Z test. [Results] The prevalence of thyroid cancer among urban residents in Shanghai increased from 7.71% (95% CI: 6.50% ~ 8.95%) and 7.05% (95% CI: 4.97% % ~ 9.18%), the incidence of thyroid cancer in women is 2.59 ~ 4.09 times that of men. In addition to 0 to 19 years of age, the incidence of all age groups showed an upward trend, with an average annual increase of more than 13%; high-risk age group thyroid cancer gradually concentrated in 45 to 64 groups. From 2002 to 2010, the pathological type of thyroid cancer was papillary carcinoma, accounting for more than 53% of the total. The incidence of papillary, follicular and female myeloid cancers in 2007-2010 increased at least 1-fold from 2002-2006. [Conclusion] The growth trend of thyroid cancer in Shanghai is similar to that of the global and some developed countries. To strengthen the relevant assessment and research will help to better understand the epidemiological characteristics of thyroid cancer in Shanghai and lay the foundation for the improvement of relevant prevention and control strategies.