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研究目标:测度金砖国家经济周期协同性并探究其传导机制。研究方法:运用Scalar-BEKK模型测算1996年第2季度以来金砖国家经济周期协同性的动态演化路径,并采用面板联立方程模型考察金砖国家经济周期协同性的传导机制。研究发现:金砖各国经济周期波动总体上存在一定的偏弱协同性,且协同性具有显著的时变特征。双边贸易强度、金融一体化、专业化分工、汇率波动性是影响金砖国家经济周期协同性的重要渠道,但其影响机制有所差异。各传导渠道对金砖国家经济周期协同性同时产生直接影响和间接影响,且各传导渠道的相对重要性有所不同。研究创新:在时变框架下测算金砖国家经济周期协同性,基于面板联立方程模型刻画协同性与各传导渠道之间复杂的经济关联。研究价值:为金砖国家区域经济政策的制定和实施提供重要参考。
Research objectives: To measure the BRICS economic cycle synergies and explore its transmission mechanism. Research Methods: Using the Scalar-BEKK model to calculate the dynamic evolutionary path of economic cycle synergies between the BRICS countries since the second quarter of 1996, the panel simultaneous equations model is used to examine the conduction mechanism of the BRICS economic cycle synergies. The research finds that there is a certain degree of weak synergy in the BRIC economic cycle, and the synergy has significant time-varying features. Bilateral trade intensity, financial integration, specialized division of labor, and exchange rate volatility are important channels that affect the BRICS economic cycle synergies, but the mechanism of their influence is different. The various channels of communication have direct and indirect impacts on the economic synergies of the BRICS countries at the same time, and the relative importance of each channel of transmission is different. Research and Innovation: Calculate the economic cycle synergies in BRICs under the framework of time-varying frameworks, and describe the complicated economic relationship between synergy and transmission channels based on panel simultaneous equation model. Research Value: It provides important reference for the formulation and implementation of BRICs’ regional economic policies.