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京津冀地处华北,是我国极度缺水地区,年供水量不足水资源需求量的一半,其中农业用水占全年总用水量70%,且呈增长趋势,合理配置水资源有助于实现该区域可持续发展。文章基于虚拟水核算方法,对京津冀地区10种农产品虚拟水含量进行计算,并通过建立固定效应回归模型,分析农产品虚拟水对经济增长的影响,通过调整农业产业结构,达到节约水资源、促进经济可持续发展的目的。计算结果显示:2014年该区域农业虚拟水含量是实体水年使用量的10倍,可达到1 854亿m~3;10种农产品年均虚拟水含水量排名是:粮食产品、禽蛋、当年造林、肉类产品、干鲜果品、牛奶、蔬菜、水产品、油料和棉花;为合理利用有限的水资源,在开放的市场系统下通过调整农业产业结构与虚拟水贸易,年节水32亿m~3。
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is located in northern China, which is extremely water-scarce in China. Annual water supply is less than half of water demand, of which agricultural water accounts for 70% of the total annual water consumption and shows an increasing trend. Rational allocation of water resources can help achieve The region is sustainable. Based on virtual water accounting method, the virtual water content of 10 kinds of agricultural products in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei area was calculated. Through the establishment of fixed effect regression model, the effect of virtual water for agricultural products on economic growth was analyzed. By adjusting agricultural industrial structure, Promote economic sustainable development purposes. The calculation results show that in 2014, the agricultural virtual water content in this region was 10 times of that of the actual water year, reaching 185.4 billion m 3. The annual average virtual water content of 10 kinds of agricultural products ranked as follows: grain products, eggs, Afforestation, meat products, fresh and dried fruits, milk, vegetables, aquatic products, oilseeds and cotton; in order to make rational use of the limited water resources, the annual water saving will be saved by 3.2 billion yuan through the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and virtual water trade under the open market system m ~ 3.