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自上世纪90年代初泡沫经济破灭后,日本长期陷入增长停滞和通货紧缩泥潭。安倍政府上台后,大力推行被称为“安倍经济学”的新经济政策,意图重振日本经济活力。“三支箭”出台之初,部分主要宏观经济指标确实达到了日本政府预期目标。但2015年日本经济再度陷入低迷,通缩压力萦绕不去,实际工资增长乏力,信贷需求依然疲弱,就连日元也进入升值通道,这与当局意愿背道而驰,因此“老三支箭”效果受到广泛质疑。2015年9月,安倍在自民党总裁连任发言中提出了着眼于长期、侧重于供给侧提升经济增长潜力的“新三支箭”。但“新三支箭”仍缺少实质性政策举措,要实现其目标也面临多重制约。总体看来,安倍经济政策是一场大型社会实验,一度颠覆了日本经济金融市场运行的固有逻辑,但其“老—新三支箭”框架下的一系列政策措施将导致日本经济金融体系进一步扭曲,股债等资产价格也将面临较大回调压力,日本早已不再是躲避金融风暴的安全港,而可能是下一场金融危机的漩涡中心。
Since the burst of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, Japan has plunged into a quagmire of growth growth and deflation for so long. After taking office, Abe’s government vigorously pursues a new economic policy called “Abenomics” in an attempt to revitalize Japan’s economy. “Three Arrow ” At the beginning of the introduction, some of the major macroeconomic indicators did meet the expectations of the Japanese government. However, Japan’s economy dropped into downturn again in 2015, the deflationary pressure lingering, the real wage growth sluggish, and credit demand remained sluggish. Even the yen has also entered the appreciation channel, which runs counter to the wishes of the authorities. Therefore, the effect of “ Widely questioned. In September 2015, Abe put forward his ”new three arrows“ focusing on the long-term, focused on the supply side’s potential for economic growth, in the LDP’s re-election speech. However, ”the new three arrows“ still lacks substantive policy measures and faces multiple constraints in order to achieve their goals. Overall, Abe Economic Policy is a large-scale social experiment that once subverts the inherent logic of the operation of Japan’s economic and financial markets. However, its series of policy measures under the framework of ”old-new three arrows" will lead Japan’s economy and finance As the system is further distorted, asset prices such as share bonds will also face greater pressure on the correction. Japan is no longer a safe haven for avoiding the financial crisis, but may be the whirlwind center for the next financial crisis.