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近年来,随着中国经济增速的放缓,固定资产投资力度下降,市场对钢铁行业的需求产生较大的担忧,认为行业需求高峰已过。本文从国际比较的角度出发,认为用传统的人均粗钢产量指标来判断中国钢铁需求高峰并不准确,提出了城镇化耗钢强度这一指标,进而分析中国粗钢需求绝对值在何种条件下会到达峰值,以判断中国粗钢需求拐点何时到来。
In recent years, with the slowdown of China’s economic growth and declining investment in fixed assets, the market has a greater concern about the demand of the steel industry and believes that the demand peak in the industry has passed its peak. This article from the international comparison point of view, that the traditional crude steel output per capita indicators to determine the peak demand of China’s steel is not accurate, put forward the urbanization of consumption of steel this indicator, and then analyze the absolute value of China’s crude steel under what conditions The next peak will be reached to determine when the turning point of China’s crude steel demand will come.