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基于生态位理论与MaxEnt模型,分析影响黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)分布的主要气候因子,划分其适宜种植区,并探究气候变化对黑果枸杞种植适宜性的影响,进而为引种驯化黑果枸杞提供理论依据和技术支持。结果表明:(1)影响黑果枸杞种植分布的主要因子为最热季降水量、温度年较差、年平均气温、最冷季平均温度、降水量的季节性变化、最湿月降水量、最干季平均温度、年降水量及海拔。(2)在当前气候情景下,黑果枸杞的适宜种植区面积约为207 382.8km2,主要分布在河西走廊及其周边、柴达木盆地、塔里木盆地、准格尔盆地、吐鲁番盆地。(3)在未来不同的温室气体排放情景下,黑果枸杞的适宜种植面积均有不同幅度的扩大,但不受气候变化影响的黑果枸杞适宜种植区面积将逐渐减小。
Based on niche theory and MaxEnt model, the main climatic factors influencing the distribution of Lycium ruthenicum were analyzed, the suitable planting areas were divided, and the influence of climate change on the adaptability of Lycium ruthenicum was studied. Then, Provide theoretical basis and technical support. The results showed as follows: (1) The main factors that affected the distribution of Lycium barbarum were the coldest month, the worse year, the annual average temperature, the coldest season average temperature, the seasonal change of precipitation, the wettest month precipitation, The most dry season average temperature, annual precipitation and altitude. (2) Under the current climate scenario, the suitable planting area of Lycium barbarum is about 207 382.8km2, mainly distributed in Hexi Corridor and its surroundings, Qaidam Basin, Tarim Basin, Zhungeer Basin and Turpan Basin. (3) Under the different greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the future, the appropriate planting area of Lycium barbarum has different extents, but the suitable planted area of Lycium barbarum will not be affected by climate change.