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与1983年东盟国家的实际经济情况相比,各界人士对该年的估计和预测都稍嫌偏低。例如,新加坡政府在1983年年初预测新加坡的经济增长率为2～4％,但实际增长7.9％,为预测数的二倍。一般低估的原因是:一、对世界经济、主要是对美国经济复苏的强劲程度估计不足;二、对世界经济复苏可能给东盟经济带来的有利影响估计不足;三、对东盟国家适应国际经济形势变化的能力估计不足。
Compared with the actual economic conditions of ASEAN countries in 1983, people from all walks of life have slightly lower estimates and forecasts for the year. For example, the government of Singapore predicted in early 1983 that Singapore’s economic growth rate was 2-4% but actually increased by 7.9%, doubling the forecast. The reasons for the general underestimation are as follows: First, the world economy is mainly underestimated in the strength of the U.S. economic recovery; second, the underestimation of the favorable impact that the world economic recovery may have on the ASEAN economy; Third, the adaptation of the ASEAN countries to the international economy The ability to detect changes in the situation is underestimated.