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自1981年发现首例艾滋病(AIDS)病人以来,艾滋病在全球蔓延的趋势并没有得到有效地控制,在实际的生活中,大多数艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者并不知道自己是感染者,艾滋病易感高危人群的特殊性、感染人群的隐匿性、社会歧视,以及感染人群的健康意识普遍淡薄,导致HIV抗体检测率较低。在这种形势下,艾滋病疫情估计成为了解人群实际感染情况的重要手段,艾滋病疫情估计工作准确与否,直接决定政策的方向是否正确。与艾滋病疫情估计相关的艾滋病病例报告、哨点监测、行为学监测、艾滋病专题调查的数据质量的好坏,直接影响着艾滋病疫情估计的准确性。该文就艾滋病估计的发展历史、估计模型分类以及几种主要的疫情估计方法做一综述。
Since the first case of AIDS was discovered in 1981, the trend of global AIDS epidemic has not been effectively controlled. In real life, most people living with HIV do not know that they are infected. AIDS The peculiarities of susceptible high risk groups, the occult infection of the infected population, social discrimination and the general weakness of the health awareness of the infected people lead to a lower HIV antibody detection rate. Under such circumstances, the assessment of the AIDS epidemic has become an important means of understanding the actual situation of the population. The accurate assessment of the AIDS epidemic directly determines whether the policy is in the right direction. The quality of the data on AIDS cases, sentinel surveillance, behavioral monitoring and AIDS special surveys related to the AIDS epidemic situation directly affects the accuracy of the AIDS epidemic estimation. This article reviews the development history of AIDS estimates, the classification of estimation models and several major epidemiological estimation methods.