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[目的]探讨太原市气候变化对麻疹流行的影响。[方法]采用Spearman相关性分析和Poisson回归模型分析太原市1994～2006年每月麻疹发病数与月平均温度、相对湿度的相关性。[结果]Spearman相关性分析结果,麻疹发病数与前1个月、前2个月的平均气温呈中度正相关(r=0.37、0.55,P<0.01),与当月的平均相对湿度呈中度负相关(r=-0.42,P<0.01);Poisson回归分析得出较一致结论,表明,麻疹发病数与前2个月的平均气温呈正相关(β=0.93,P=0.01),与当月的平均相对湿度呈负相关(β=-1.95,P=0.01)。[结论]当月的相对湿度和前2个月的平均气温对麻疹发病具有明显的影响。
[Objective] To investigate the impact of climate change on measles epidemics in Taiyuan. [Methods] Spearman correlation analysis and Poisson regression model were used to analyze the correlation between monthly incidence of measles and monthly mean temperature and relative humidity in Taiyuan from 1994 to 2006. [Results] Spearman correlation analysis showed that there was a moderate positive correlation between the incidence of measles and the average temperature of the first month and the first two months (r = 0.37, 0.55, P <0.01), and the average relative humidity of the month (R = -0.42, P <0.01). Poisson regression analysis showed that the incidence of measles was positively correlated with the average temperature in the first two months (β = 0.93, P = 0.01) The average relative humidity was negatively correlated (β = -1.95, P = 0.01). [Conclusion] The relative humidity of the current month and the average temperature of the first two months have a significant impact on the incidence of measles.