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利用长江上、下游代表水文站宜昌、大通站1951～2008年逐月月均流量资料,采用线性倾向估计、非参数Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t-检验等方法,对两站9月至翌年4月(三峡蓄水期及枯季)各月多年来的流量变化趋势进行探讨,分析了流量发生突变的时间,并对各月两站流量间关系进行初步的研究。研究表明:宜昌、大通各月流量多年变化趋势基本一致,多年来,两站9～10月流量减少,1～3月流量显著增加,流量突变大多发生在20世纪80年代,流量的变化主要与水利工程的建设及流域降雨量的变化有关;宜昌、大通站两站流量存在一定的内在关系,9～10月份两站流量间关系较好,其余月份宜昌、大通两站流量的比值与大通流量间关系较好,所得关系式可初步用于流量预测。
Based on the monthly average monthly flow data of Yichang and Datong stations on the upper and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1951 to 2008, linear propensity estimation, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, sliding t-test and other methods were used to measure the average monthly flow from September to December of the following year Month (Three Gorges Reservoir and dry season) over the years the trend of flow changes in the years to analyze the sudden change of flow time, and the relationship between the two stations for each month to conduct a preliminary study. The results show that the trend of monthly flow of Yichang and Datong is basically the same for many years. In the past nine years, the flow decreases from September to October in both stations and the flow rate increases significantly in January to March. Most of the flow changes occurred in the 1980s. The construction of water conservancy projects and the change of precipitation in the drainage basin. There is a certain internal relationship between the flow of two stations in Yichang and Datong stations. The correlation between the flow rates of the two stations in September and October is good. In the remaining months, The relationship between the two is good, and the relationship can be initially used for traffic forecasting.