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SARS对国民经济的影响大致可以分为短期和长期两个方面。目前理论界和实业界对 SARS冲击造成的经济影响的讨论多集中在它对国民经济的短期影响上 ,对于长期影响的分析不多 ,对于非正式制度的分析更少。本文把这次 SARS冲击置于中国正处于经济转轨过程中这样的国情下 ,将其与东亚金融危机做比较 ,进行短期分析 ;危机还会导致正式制度和非正式制度的变迁 ,从而对国民经济长期发展产生影响。总的说来 ,短期中 SARS冲击会对国民经济造成比较严重的损失 ,但长期中会推动改革的进程 ,提高资源的配置效率。
The impact of SARS on the national economy can be roughly divided into short-term and long-term aspects. At present, the discussion of the economic impact of SARS shocks by theorists and practitioners has focused more on its short-term impact on the national economy, less on the long-term impact and less on the informal system. This article put the SARS impact in China is in the process of economic transition in such a national situation, compared with the East Asian financial crisis for short-term analysis; crisis will lead to the formal system and the informal system of change, thus the national economy Long-term development has an impact. In general, the SARS impact in the short term will cause serious losses to the national economy. However, in the long run, the reform process will be promoted and the allocation efficiency of resources will be enhanced.