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2015年前后,我国财政支出的增速出现较大波动,表现在2014年下半年的大幅收缩以及2015年的逆势扩张并延续到2016年。究其原因,这是在新常态下经济面临增速下行、地方债务风险等问题下财政政策的一个被动调整,包括对地方债务的规范、地方债务置换等措施。财政政策在一年内的反复转向也对经济产生了较大冲击,导致固定资产投资的加速下滑,同时财政收支矛盾加大。针对这些问题,只有通过供给侧改革促进经济增长,才能缓解财政收支不平衡、地方债务风险,解决财政政策进退两难的困境。
The growth rate of fiscal expenditure in our country fluctuated greatly around 2015, showing a sharp contraction in the second half of 2014 and a contrarian expansion in 2015 and extending into 2016. The reason is that it is a passive adjustment of fiscal policy under the new normal in the face of the economic downturn, local debt risks and other measures, including the regulation of local debts and the replacement of local debts. The repeated turning of fiscal policy within a year has also had a large impact on the economy, leading to an accelerated decline in investment in fixed assets and an increase in the contradictions in revenue and expenditure. In response to these problems, only through supply-side reform to promote economic growth can we ease the imbalance in fiscal revenue and expenditure and local debt risks and solve the dilemma of fiscal policy.