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干旱灾害是影响陇东南及陇东地区粮食生产的主要气候灾害。评估其对该地粮食生产的影响及粮食作物种植的风险程度,是干旱研究工作的目的之一。根据陇东南及陇东4市1981-2006年粮食产量及各地同期历年降水资料,借助数理统计方法分析了4市的干旱灾害变化的基本特征和该地冬小麦和玉米受干旱影响的减产程度,构造了评价冬小麦及玉米种植风险系数及评价方法。结果表明,陇东地区比陇东南地区更容易发生旱灾,春旱以陇东地区的庆阳最易发生且程度严重,初夏旱以陇东地区的平凉最易发生,伏旱以陇东南地区的天水最易发生。冬小麦的种植比玉米的种植风险大,陇东地区粮食作物的种植的风险比陇东南地区大。冬小麦种植风险最大的地方为平凉,其次为庆阳,最小的为陇南。玉米种植风险最大的地方是庆阳,其次为平凉,最小为陇南。
Drought disasters are the major climatic disasters that affect the grain production in Longdong and Longdong areas. Assessing its impact on the food production in the area and the degree of risk involved in the cultivation of food crops is one of the objectives of the drought research effort. According to the grain yield and the historical precipitation over the same period from 1981 to 2006 in Longdong, Gansu, and Longdong, the basic characteristics of the changes of drought disaster in four cities and the yield reduction of winter wheat and maize affected by drought were analyzed by means of mathematical statistics. Evaluation of winter wheat and corn planting risk coefficient and evaluation methods. The results showed that drought occurred more easily than the southeastern part of Longdong in eastern Gansu Province. In spring and drought, Qingyang in the eastern part of Gansu Province was most likely to occur and seriously affected. In the early summer, Most likely to happen. Growing winter wheat is more risky than planting corn, and the risk of growing food crops in eastern Gansu is greater than in southeastern Gansu. The most risky place for planting winter wheat is Pingliang, followed by Qingyang and the youngest is Longnan. The most risky place for planting corn is Qingyang, followed by Pingliang and the smallest is Longnan.