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本文根据1990年到2006年城乡居民中低档日常耐用品的消费数据,运用协整理论,对城乡居民中低档日常耐用品的消费与其可支配收入之间的关系进行了实证比较分析。结果发现,城镇居民对日常耐用品的消费与其收入之间不存在长期均衡关系,农村居民对日常耐用品的消费与其收入之间存在长期均衡关系,因而农村仍存在消费彩电、冰箱、洗衣机等中低档日常耐用品的市场潜力,利用“家电下乡”活动开拓农村市场、扩大内需是有效的。但由于收入风险和消费环境的影响,要使这一政策更加有效,还需要采取相应的配套措施。
Based on the consumption data of middle and low daily durable goods of urban and rural residents from 1990 to 2006, this paper makes an empirical comparison between the consumption of daily durable goods in urban and rural areas and their disposable income by using cointegration theory. The results show that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between urban residents’ daily consumption of durable goods and their income, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the consumption of daily durable goods by rural residents and their income. Therefore, in rural areas, consumer color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines and the like still exist Market potential of low-end daily durable goods, the use of “home appliances to the countryside ” activities to open up the rural market, expanding domestic demand is effective. However, due to the impact of income risks and consumption environment, to make this policy more effective, corresponding supporting measures also need to be taken.